Elphick appointment would be risk for City - but so will any new boss

The usual candidates linked with each and every vacancy in English football - such as Steven Gerrard and Russell Martin - were mooted by some. Former Tottenham and Brentford boss Thomas Frank was suggested by another. And the likes of John Mousinho and Michael Skubala have been raised throughout the last few weeks.

One name that hadn't been mentioned, until a surprise shift in the now-suspended betting odds earlier this week, however, was that of Tommy Elphick. In fact, I would hazard a guess that few in City circles would have known enough about the 38-year-old to suggest him as an option.

A little more than a fortnight on from the end of the season, however, and the Bournemouth assistant is, according to a report from The Telegraph, one of two final candidates for the vacancy at Ashton Gate, alongside Skubala.

Rather predictably, and dare I say, understandably, given Elphick's lack of managerial experience - the job in south Bristol would be his first gig as the main man in the dugout - the reaction from the majority of supporters, at least those active on social media, has fallen somewhere in the middle of trepidatious and baffled.

Type 'Bristol City' or 'Tommy Elphick' into your X, formerly Twitter, search bar, and you won't have to look far for the word risk to pop up. In the eyes of many fans, appointing someone to their first head coach’s job at the start of what has been widely tipped as one of the biggest summers in south Bristol in recent years would represent a massive step into the unknown.

In truth, it would be wrong for me to argue with that feeling. Like the majority of you reading this, I cannot begin to claim that I know anything about Elphick's coaching style, preferred formation or management techniques, nor can I honestly suggest that he would be a good or poor fit for the current group in place in BS3.

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That isn't because of a lack of research or a lack of understanding; it is simply because the evidence isn't there for us to all see in the same way that it is with a Mousinho or a Skubala, or as it was with a Struber, a Roy Hodgson, a Liam Manning.

Having watched Mousinho's Portsmouth side in action and with knowledge of the circumstances at Fratton Park, journalists and supporters alike can suggest that the Pompey boss would be a good fit at Ashton Gate. Similarly, having watched Lincoln City romp to the League One title from afar this term, it is easy to get excited about what Skubala could bring to the West Country.

However, football - particularly in the Championship - is famously unpredictable. There is more than enough evidence to suggest that just because something should work on paper, it doesn't mean that it will in practice.

From a stylistic point of view, Struber, a year ago, felt like the natural fit to push the Robins a step further than they had managed under Manning. Whatever your feelings around the circumstances of his departure, and we don't need to go over that ground once more, the fact that he was relieved of his duties nine months after he arrived in south Bristol proves things are not always as they seem.

Similarly, Manning - who was far from many supporters' first pick to replace Nigel Pearson - is the only City boss to have registered a top six Championship finish in the last 18 years. Was he or his football perfect? No, but he delivered success - based on the Robins' targets - in a way that no one since Gary Johnson nearly two decades prior has managed.

Should the above two paragraphs alone push the Reds' new sporting director James Ellis, CEO Charlie Boss and board to hand Elphick the job? Of course not, but it should show that there is no set way of getting things right when it comes to appointing a manager.

Similarly, the evidence of previously unproven assistant managers stepping into the hot seat should be considered, even if it shouldn't be the driving force behind any potential appointment.

It is perhaps pertinent that links with Elphick have emerged the day after Mikel Arteta, who had never had a manager's job before taking over Arsenal, guided the Gunners to their first league title in more than 20 years.

Others will point to seemingly Manchester City-bound Enzo Maresca, the man who has guided Ipswich Town to the Premier League twice, Kieran McKenna and even - to a degree - Mousinho and Skubala themselves. While he is currently at the centre of the 'spygate' controversy, Southampton is Tonda Eckert's first senior management job and, up until a fortnight ago, he had been many neutrals' tip for manager of the season.

There are many examples out there of assistants making the step up successfully. There have also been occasions where it hasn't worked - Jason Tindall at Bournemouth and Jonathan Woodgate at Middlesbrough spring to mind, and I'm sure you can recall others.

The truth likely sits with the point I made several paragraphs ago: football is unpredictable. In the same way that Elphick - if he were to get the City job - could prove to be an inspired appointment like Arteta, Maresca or McKenna, he could go the way of Tindall or Woodgate.

Such sentiment rings true with Mousinho, Skubala, Martin, Gerrard, Paddy McCarthy or anyone else bookmakers, journalists and fans alike have touted as Struber's potential successor as well. Each and every managerial appointment - like each and every transfer - is a risk as, unfortunately, none of us can predict the future.

Would appointing someone who has never managed a first-team before represent a greater risk? Perhaps, but in his time as Bournemouth assistant, Elphick will have enjoyed experiences that Skubala, who has not yet coached in the Championship, and his Portsmouth equivalent have not yet been able to.

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As Arteta and Arsenal finally got their hands on the Premier League last night, Elphick and Andoni Iraola secured European football for the first time in Bournemouth's 127-year history with a draw against Manchester City. As part of the Spaniard's staff, the 38-year-old has helped oversee one of the most exciting projects in English football in recent years, having previously played his part in the battle at the other end of the table during Gary O'Neil's tenure.

At risk of echoing the same point, does that mean he should be offered the job on the spot? Of course not, but it is easy to see how such a CV would appeal to the likes of Ellis, who has been confirmed to have identified and met candidates, and the board. If it were to work, City could uncover a gem.

Ultimately, it is the job of people far more qualified than you and me to weigh up the pros and cons of those in the running. Even then, with every factor under the sun considered, you can never be quite sure how things will turn out; if you could, the Robins wouldn't be on the hunt for their seventh permanent head coach since they returned to the second tier 11 years ago.

Whether or not it will be Elphick, Skubala, or someone else who steps into the shoes of Hodgson is not yet certain. What is as close to a guarantee as possible, however - unless Pep Guardiola's reported Manchester City exit is a ploy for the Reds job - is that there will be an element of risk in appointing the 78-year-old's successor, no matter who they prove to be.

That was a risk - rightly or wrongly - the Robins decided they were willing to take the moment they sacked Struber in March.