Premier League relegation battle: Is it between West Ham and Spurs after Forest win?

Nottingham Forest stunned Sunderland with a sensational 5-0 win on Friday to put some serious distance between themselves and the bottom three.

It moved Vitor Pereira's side on to 39 points, eight clear of 18th-placed Tottenham and six clear of 17th-placed West Ham.

It is 15 years since a team was last relegated from the Premier League with 39 points.

So, with Forest unbeaten in eight games in all competitions, is it time to call the battle to avoid the Premier League's final relegation spot a two-horse race?

Premier League: Nottm Forest thump Sunderland 5-0 to edge towards safety - reaction

Are Forest definitely safe? What the stats sayForest boss Pereira was quick to tell BBC Match of the Day that his side's tally "isn't enough" to stay up quite yet.

"We need more points, we need to win more games and we need to keep our mentality," he said.

But is Pereira being needlessly cautious?

Twenty-three teams have been on exactly 39 points after 34 games across Premier League history - and none of them have gone down.

There is a strong argument to be made that Forest, and by extension Leeds on 40 points, already have enough to stay up.

When looking at 38-match seasons the average points tally of the side finishing 18th is 34.5 - so 35 points is, on average, good enough for survival.

And, in even better news for Forest and Leeds fans, over the past five seasons the average points tally for 18th has dropped to 29.6.

Only six teams have ever been relegated from the Premier League with 39 or more points in a 38-game campaign.

The last two were Birmingham and Blackpool, who both went down with 39 in 2010-11.

"Is 39 points enough to keep you up? Yes, but you have to work on the basis that anything is still possible," former England midfielder Jamie Redknapp told Sky Sports after Forest's win.

"You are asking Tottenham to win four games... is that going to be possible? We don't know. Back-to-back wins and it all changes."

Mathematically, eight more points ensures next season will be Forest's fifth consecutive campaign in the top flight.

In theory Tottenham could finish on 46 points, but that would require them to win all five of their final five games.

Forest's remaining league matches are against Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth.

Tottenham are up against Wolves, Aston Villa, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton.

And West Ham still have to play Everton, Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds.

In six first-half minutes Forest went from 1-0 up to 4-0 up by capitalising on some Sunderland errors and displaying a ruthlessness in front of goal not seen in the first half of the season.

Chris Wood scored for the first time since a double on the opening day, having been sidelined for most of this campaign with a knee injury.

Goalscorer Igor Jesus impressed, former Newcastle midfielder Elliot Anderson was also on the scoresheet and Morgan Gibbs-White netted again to extend his superb goalscoring run to seven goals in seven games.

Redknapp described it as "the result of the season".

"In the predicament Forest are in, to go to Sunderland and win 5-0, yes Sunderland's home form hasn't been great of late but this is still a difficult place to go, and they had real quality," added Redknapp.

"An unbelievable result. I can only imagine what Nuno Espirito Santo and Roberto de Zerbi are thinking. They are probably watching from behind the sofa thinking, 'we've got it all on now'."

Forest striker Wood added to BBC Match of the Day that survival "is in touching distance".

He said: "I don't think it's done. But it's a big mental one and back-to-back wins puts us in a good position."

What information do we collect from this quiz?What now for Spurs & West Ham?While Nottingham Forest struck the first blow of the weekend on Friday, Tottenham and West Ham - unusually - both play at the same time on Saturday.

The Hammers host Everton and former manager David Moyes, with Spurs visiting already relegated Wolves.

Tottenham boss De Zerbi, whose side conceded a last-minute equaliser to draw 2-2 with Brighton in their previous fixture, said "a win can change this part of the season".

"We are suffering, they are suffering because it is not easy to play in Tottenham in this condition of the table, but I said they have to be stronger," he added.

"We have to live every part of the day waiting for a win and preparing for a win."

Tottenham and West Ham have to contend with similar run-ins, with Spurs arguably facing the slightly easier of the two. The average position of the teams they still have to play is 11th, while for the Hammers it is 10th.

What West Ham do have which Tottenham do not, however, is some semblance of form.

Nuno's team have won two and lost just one of their past five matches. Spurs have not won since last year.

"The players are improving their levels and the standards," said Nuno. "We have been solid in defence, good in attack... sometimes not so good. Finding that balance in the remaining matches is going to be crucial for us."

According to Opta's supercomputer, it is now 99% likely the final relegation spot will be taken by either Tottenham or West Ham.

Spurs are now 61.01% favourites to go down, while the Hammers have a 37.98% chance of being relegated.

Opta thinks both Leeds and Forest are all but safe - their chances of relegation have narrowed significantly to less than 1%.

So if, indeed, it is down to Tottenham and West Ham - which one will it be? You can predict their remaining results below to see how many points each would end up on...

What information do we collect from this quiz?What information do we collect from this quiz?Related topicsNottingham ForestWest Ham UnitedPremier LeagueTottenham HotspurFootballMore on this storyLatest Nottingham Forest news, analysis and fan views

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